China’s manufacturing activity expands in March after a 5-month lull


BEIJING (AP) — Manufacturing in China expanded in March after contracting for five consecutive months, according to an official survey of factory managers released Sunday, suggesting a rebound in industrial activities following the Lunar New Year holiday.

The official purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose from 49.1 in February to 50.8 in March. The PMI is on a scale up to 100, where 50 marks the cutoff between expansion and contraction.

The monthly manufacturing PMI has mostly been under 50 over the past 12 months: Other than this month, factory activities only recorded an expansion in September.

National Bureau of Statistics senior statistician Zhao Qinghe said the market became more active as companies resumed and sped up production after the Lunar New Year holiday. Many factories stopped running during the holiday, with social media posts suggesting workers at some companies were off for as many as 140 days starting in late 2023 due to the lack of new orders.

Zhao said the survey also showed some problems for companies remained, including increasing competition in industries and a lack of market demand.

During the annual session of the National People’s Congress in March, China said it would encourage consumers to scrap old appliances and trade in their cars for electric vehicles to help spur more domestic demand. And it said 10.4 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) would go to upgrading industries and modernizing manufacturing.

Zhao said the policies promoting the trade-ins of consumer goods and large-scale equipment upgrades still needed further implementation to support the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry.

According to the survey released Sunday, the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 53 from 51.4 in February. The reading is the highest since June 2023.

The recovery of the world’s second-largest economy following the shocks of the pandemic faced many obstacles, one of the largest being a downturn in the real estate industry after authorities moved to curb excess borrowing by property developers.

The ruling Communist Party’s target is to grow the economy by about 5% this year, an ambition that economists say may be hard to attain.



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China’s property crisis is bleeding into its banking sector, which is being asked to prop up developers


  • China’s property crisis has impacted the country’s biggest banks, increasing non-performing loans.

  • Beijing is urging banks to boost financing for “white list” property developers to help the sector.

  • Despite the crisis, Chinese banks say they have sufficient buffers to manage risks.

China’s property crisis has hit the books of its biggest lenders, which are reporting an uptick in non-performing loans.

Non-performing loans at China’s big four banks — Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China — jumped 10.4% in 2023, from 1.117 trillion Chinese yuan, about $155 billion, in 2022 to 1.23 trillion yuan.

This is according to a Nikkei analysis based on the companies’ earnings, which were released this week.

The banks were all profitable last year, but their margins are being increasingly pressured by the fallout from China’s real-estate debt crisis.

Even so, Beijing is urging banks to boost financing for property developers featured on a “white list” of companies.

China’s real-estate sector has been mired in crisis since the second half of 2021, when a liquidity crunch at Evergrande — once China’s second-largest developer — came to light.

Evergrande is now in liquidation, while other Chinese real-estate developers have run into similar issues and have begun defaulting on their bond payments, spurring fears the crisis could spill over into other sectors of the economy, and globally.

Despite the rise in bad loans, Chinese lenders said they had enough buffers to weather the storm and will control lending risks to property developers, per Nikkei.

Read the original article on Business Insider



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China’s latest EV is a ‘connected’ car from smartphone maker Xiaomi



BEIJING — Xiaomi, a well-known maker of smart consumer electronics in China, is joining the country’s booming but crowded market for electric cars.

The tech company will start taking orders for the SU7, a sporty four-door sedan, following a launch event with founder Lei Jun in Beijing on Thursday evening. Analysts think it will be priced in the 300,000 yuan ($40,000) range.

Government subsidies have helped make China the world’s largest market for electric vehicles, and a bevy of new makers are locked in fierce competition. Most of the industry’s sales have been domestic, but Chinese makers are pushing into overseas markets with lower-priced models, posing a potential challenge to European, Japanese and American auto giants.

Lei is not bashful about that challenge, saying at an unveiling of the SU7 in December that Beijing-based Xiaomi aims to become one of the world’s top five automakers in the next 15 to 20 years.

“I believe that one day, Xiaomi EVs will be a familiar sight on roads around the world,” he was quoted as saying in a company news release.

Xiaomi, founded in 2010, is entering an overcrowded market that analysts expect will undergo a shakeout in coming years, with weaker startups falling by the wayside.

The combined share of EVs and hybrids in China’s auto sales is likely to reach 42% to 45% this year, up from 36% in 2023, according to Fitch Ratings. But the agency said in a December report that the competition could put pressure on automakers’ short-term market share and profitability.

Known for its affordable smartphones, smart TVs and other devices, Xiaomi aims to capitalize on that technology by connecting its cars with its phones and home appliances in what it calls a “Human x Car x Home” ecosystem.

Tu Le, the founder of the Sino Auto Insights consultancy, said that Xiaomi is trying to close the loop by adding transportation to a product mix already integrated into its customers’ personal and professional lives.

“The ability to seamlessly be a continuous part of someone’s life is the holy grail for tech companies,” he said in an emailed response. “You probably don’t know anyone in Beijing that doesn’t have at least one Xiaomi product, be it a mobile phone, computer, TV, (air) purifier, or tablet.”

As a newcomer to automaking, the company is making an educated guess that it can design and develop a car that will sell, he said. Given the sluggish Chinese economy and an ongoing EV price war, he predicted it would take a year or two to see if Xiaomi can adapt to correct any missteps and succeed.

“They are a technology company, so that’s their advantage, but they need to reconcile that with drinking through a fire hose to learn how to be a tech company that builds cars,” Le said.

CreditSights, a financial research firm, said it expects Xiaomi’s EV division to sell 60,000 vehicles in its first year and lose money for its first two years because of high marketing and promotion costs.

Chinese automakers trying to expand abroad face political headwinds.

The E.U. is investigating Chinese subsidies to determine if they give made-in-China EVs an unfair market advantage overseas. The U.S. announced an investigation last month into Chinese-made connected cars that it says could gather sensitive information about their drivers.

“China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices,” President Joe Biden said when the U.S. investigation was announced. “China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security. I’m not going to let that happen on my watch.’′

China pushed back this week, filing a World Trade Organization complaint that alleges that U.S. subsidies for electric vehicles discriminate against Chinese products.

The U.S. Defense Department put Xiaomi on a blacklist in 2021 over alleged links to China’s military, but removed it a few months later after the company denied the links and sued the U.S. government.



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Yellen warns China’s surplus of solar panels, EVs could be dumped on global markets



“The Biden administration also recognizes that these investments are new,” Yellen said Wednesday.

Meanwhile, China has been pouring billions into clean energy for years, outpacing the rest of the world in the energy transition.

Yellen added that the more China’s clean energy glut interferes with global market prices, the worse off supply chains for these energy sectors will be.

“President Biden is committed to doing what we can to protect our industries from unfair competition,” Yellen said.

The Chinese Embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Yellen’s comments highlight ongoing U.S.-China trade tension even as the two countries try to steady relations.

President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in November as an olive-branch effort to break the ice after years of tension, marked in part by a tariff war launched by former President Donald Trump.

Trump has floated reinstating significant tariff levels on Chinese products if he wins a second presidential term.

In the time since the Biden-Xi meeting, strengthening U.S.-China relations has proven a precarious effort due to ongoing cybersecurity and trade concerns.

In February, Biden launched an investigation into Chinese smart cars, which he said pose a national security risk because they connect to U.S. infrastructure when they drive on American roads.

“China is determined to dominate the future of the auto market, including by using unfair practices,” Biden said in a February statement. “China’s policies could flood our market with its vehicles, posing risks to our national security. I’m not going to let that happen on my watch.”



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U.S. business leaders meet with China’s president


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NBC News’ Janis Mackey Frayer reports from Beijing, where a number of U.S. business leaders, including the CEOs of Blackstone, Qualcomm, Bloomberg, Chubb and FedEx, met with the Chinese president



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China’s Xi meets American CEOs in bid to boost confidence in ailing economy



BEIJING — Chinese President Xi Jinping met with top U.S. executives in Beijing Wednesday, as his government tries to reassure foreign businesses about a market that remains crucial for their bottom lines despite persistent tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.

Xi met the group of American businesspeople and academics at the Great Hall of the People, Chinese state media reported. The meeting was preceded by a group photo.

Participants included Blackstone founder Stephen Schwarzman, Bloomberg Chair Mark Carney, FedEx President Rajesh Subramaniam and Qualcomm President and CEO Cristiano Amon, according to state media reports.

During the meeting, Xi said the Chinese economy was “healthy and sustainable,” an achievement that “cannot be separated from international cooperation,” according to state media, which reported that he “listened carefully” to the American participants.

The executives were in China for a series of business-related events including the China Development Forum, an annual high-level meeting that ended Monday. Other prominent U.S. business leaders such as Apple CEO Tim Cook have also been in China in recent days, as the government and American companies engage in a mutual charm offensive.

China has been struggling to bounce back from three years of pandemic isolation, its economic recovery weighed down by structural issues including a real estate crisis, high local government debt, industrial overcapacity, lackluster consumption and youth unemployment, though the economy managed a 5.2 percent growth rate last year.  

“The mood here is still pretty dark — about the economy, about the trajectory of the country overall, about China’s place in the world,” Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, said in an interview in Beijing last week.

“There’s been some economic recovery, but it has not translated into people having more positive, optimistic sentiment,” he said.

U.S. and other foreign companies who still see the potential for big business in China, meanwhile, have been alarmed by regulatory crackdowns, a new anti-espionage law, the use of exit bans, raids on consulting and due diligence firms, and other measures amid Xi’s national security drive.

“China’s success the last 40 years has been built on the private sector and openness and collaboration with the West,” Kennedy said. “And so people’s sense of the future is very unclear and ambiguous, and I think that’s what’s leading consumers to not spend as much, companies not to invest as much and for there to be this general malaise that you encounter just about everywhere you go.”

During a visit to China last year, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said U.S. firms had told her the country was “uninvestable because it’s become too risky.”

And a report released in February by the American Chamber of Commerce in China found that the top concerns of U.S. businesses in the country were U.S.-Sino relations as well as China’s regulatory environment and rising costs.

Hopes rose in November when Xi and President Joe Biden held a summit in California, their first encounter in a year. During that trip, Xi also met with U.S. business leaders at a dinner in San Francisco, where he received a standing ovation.

Among the attendees at that dinner was Apple CEO Cook, a frequent traveler to China who arrived for another high-profile visit last week.

Even as the company shifts some production to countries such as India, Cook emphasized on this visit that Apple is still committed to China, a key overseas market for the company as well as a major manufacturing base.

For the first time last year, Apple was China’s largest smartphone vendor, with market share of 17.3%. But the company is under intense pressure from domestic competitors such as Huawei, and iPhone sales reportedly fell by 24% in the first six weeks of this year compared with a year earlier.

The use of iPhones at Chinese government agencies and state-owned enterprises has also reportedly been restricted amid national security concerns, much like the Chinese app TikTok has been banned from U.S. government devices.

Those are not the only challenges facing Apple, which was sued by the U.S. Justice Department on Thursday over its alleged monopolization of the smartphone market.

Earlier that day, Cook was all smiles as he opened a new Apple store in downtown Shanghai, the company’s 57th outlet in China and its second-largest flagship in the world after its Fifth Avenue location in New York.

Cook said he was “very confident” in the future of Apple’s China operations. “I love being here. I love the people and the culture,” he told reporters. “And it’s just like every time I come here, I’m reminded that anything is possible here.”

Though Cook was mobbed by fans at the store opening, where some people had lined up overnight, that doesn’t necessarily translate into sales. The economic downturn appears to be making Chinese consumers more price-sensitive, increasing the appeal of cheaper smartphones from Huawei and other local rivals.

“The iPhone is more expensive than other phones, so I think people will choose cheaper ones,” Shi Zhongnuo, 17, said in an interview Monday outside an Apple store in Beijing.

Cook also met with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao, who urged him to “continue to unlock the Chinese market and achieve shared development with China,” according to a ministry statement.

It was unclear whether Cook attended the meeting with Xi on Wednesday.

But China’s courting of executives is in part an effort to revive business interest from abroad. The country’s foreign direct investment fell 19.9% in the first two months of this year to 215.1 billion renminbi ($30 billion), the Commerce Ministry reported last week, after shrinking 8% year-on-year in 2023.

“There’s still huge numbers of multinationals and American companies here, but China has basically lost its place at the very top of the list of where they are targeting strategic investment long term,” Kennedy of CSIS said.

A Chinese regulatory official on Tuesday dismissed the drop in foreign investment as nothing unusual.

“The volatility is quite normal when viewed from a global or Asian perspective, or when the trend is viewed on a longer timeline,” Xu Zhibin, the deputy head of China’s foreign exchange regulator, said at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual gathering in China’s southern island province of Hainan that is known as the “Asian Davos.”

Premier Li Qiang, China’s No. 2 official, told Cook and other global business executives at the China Development Forum in Beijing on Sunday that China welcomed foreign investment and was taking steps to improve its business environment.

Vice Commerce Minister Guo Tingting also said Monday that foreign companies would be treated the same as Chinese ones so that they “can invest in China with confidence and peace of mind.”

Last week, Chinese officials eased some rules on foreign investment as well as some security rules on the cross-border flow of data, an issue that has concerned foreign companies. Earlier this month, Beijing said it would make access to the manufacturing sector easier for foreign investors.

Sean Stein, chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said that while such announcements were encouraging, “announcements don’t move markets and promises don’t drive investment.”

“The key, as ever, will be full and timely implementation,” he said.

Janis Mackey Frayer reported from Beijing, and Jennifer Jett reported from Hong Kong.



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China’s July exports tumble by double digits, adding to pressure to shore up flagging economy


BEIJING (AP) — China’s exports plunged by 14.5% in July compared with a year earlier, adding to pressure on the ruling Communist Party to reverse an economic slump.

Exports fell to $281.8 billion as the decline widened from June’s 12.4% fall, customs data showed Tuesday. Imports tumbled 12.4% from a year earlier to $201.2 billion in a sign of weak domestic demand, widening from the previous month’s 6.8% contraction.

The country’s global trade surplus narrowed by 20.4% from a record high a year ago to $80.6 billion.

Chinese leaders are trying to shore up business and consumer activity after a rebound following the end of anti-virus controls in December fizzled out earlier than expected.

Economic growth sank to 0.8% in the three months ending in June compared with the previous quarter, down from the January-March period’s 2.2%. That is the equivalent of 3.2% annual growth, which would be among China’s weakest in three decades.

The ruling party has promised measures to support entrepreneurs and to encourage home purchases and consumer spending but hasn’t announced large-scale stimulus spending or tax cuts.

Demand for Chinese exports cooled after the Federal Reserve and central banks in Europe and Asia started raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at multi-decade highs.

The export contraction was the biggest since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, according to Capital Economics. It said the decline was due mostly to lower prices, while volumes of goods were above pre-pandemic levels.

“We expect exports to decline further over the coming months before bottoming out toward the end of the year,” said Capital Economics in a report. “The near-term outlook for consumer spending in developed economies remains challenging.”

Exports to the United States fell 23% from a year earlier to $42.3 billion while imports of American goods retreated 11.1% to $12 billion. China’s politically sensitive trade surplus with the United States narrowed by 27% to a still-robust $30.3 billion.

China’s imports from Russia, mostly oil and gas, narrowed by just under 0.1% from a year ago to $9.2 billion. Chinese purchases of Russian energy have swelled, helping to offset revenue lost to Western sanctions imposed to punish the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine.

China, which is friendly with Moscow but says it is neutral in the war, can buy Russian oil and gas without triggering Western sanctions. The United States and French officials cite evidence China is delivering goods with possible military uses to Russia but haven’t said whether that might trigger penalties against Chinese companies.

Exports to the 27-nation European Union slumped 39.5% from a year earlier to $42.4 billion while imports of European goods were off 44.1% at $23.3 billion. China’s trade surplus with the EU contracted by 32.7% to $19.1 billion.

For the first seven months of the year, Chinese exports were off 5% from the same period in 2022 at just over $1.9 trillion. Imports were down 7.6% at $1.4 trillion.

___

General Administration of Customs of China (in Chinese): www.customs.gov.cn



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China’s Viral Rebuke of Russia Doesn’t Mean Xi Is Ditching Putin


(Bloomberg) — China last week unleashed some of its strongest criticism against Russia since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. Yet any suggestion that Xi Jinping is shifting his view on the war amounts to wishful thinking.

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The rare admonition took place on Friday over an incident involving Chinese citizens — including a popular video blogger — who were denied entry from Kazakhstan into Russia at a border checkpoint. Video footage widely circulated on Chinese social media platforms over the weekend showed Russian border officials going through suitcases, with one of the travelers saying he felt like he was being treated as a criminal.

“Russia’s brutal and excessive law-enforcement activities in this incident have seriously violated the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese citizens,” the Chinese Embassy in Moscow said in a post on the social media platform WeChat.

Yet while the language was unusually harsh, it hardly signals a broader shift from Beijing. Since Russia’s invasion, China has repeatedly sought to create some space with Moscow on issues such as the use of nuclear weapons and attacks on civilians, even as Xi consistently backs Putin’s reasons for going to war — not least because Beijing sees the US and its allies strengthening ties with Taiwan.

The incident shows the world that relations between China and Russia are more layered and nuanced than understood by many in the West, according to Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China and Globalization research group based in Beijing.

“China needs to maintain good relations with Russia,” he said. “It doesn’t mean they’re in favor of everything Russia does.”

Xi, who signed up to a “no limits” friendship with Putin shortly before his invasion, has sought to portray China as a neutral broker on Ukraine, releasing a 12-point blueprint for bringing peace that included calls to respect sovereignty, facilitate grain exports and halt all hostilities. While the roadmap has been widely panned by the US and its allies, it has bought Xi credibility among the so-called Global South and won China a seat at Ukraine talks hosted by Saudi Arabia over the weekend.

‘Unpredictability’

China sent a delegation led by veteran diplomat Li Hui to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to join more than 40 countries including the US and European nations — but not Russia. While the discussions brought little in the way of concrete steps to stop the war or reverse Russia’s territorial gains, they showed Xi’s success in countering US efforts to isolate Beijing due to its relationship with Russia.

Still, China has several reasons to be irked with Putin, including his move to end a deal that allowed grain exports through the Black Sea, leading to food supply problems that also impact China. And that’s only part of the problem, according to Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

“The main issue remains the unpredictability of the long-term nature of the conflict,” he said. “The war destabilizes the world, and this is bad from Beijing’s perspective as much as they might like the distracting effect it has toward the West’s focus on China.”

China has also made some economic overtures to Ukraine, although not to a degree that comes anywhere close to its trade ties with Russia.

Last month, China’s deputy commerce minister met with Ukraine’s deputy economy minister in Beijing, pledging to import more products from Ukraine and develop mutually beneficial economic and trade cooperation with the country, according to a Chinese readout from the meeting. China’s exports to Ukraine totaled nearly $233 million in June, down from a high of $1.2 billion from January last year.

By contrast, China’s exports to Russia reached a new historical monthly high of 69 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) in June. Its crude imports from Russia rose 8.2% month-on-month to a record 10.50 million tons in June, according to customs data.

Military Exercises

China and Russia are also deepening military cooperation.

Over the weekend, both countries sent 11 navy patrol ships near Alaska, according to a Wall Street Journal report, the seventh bilateral military exercise between the two nuclear-armed nations this year. It also set a new milestone in cooperation, marking the highest number of joint military exercises in the past two decades between the neighbors, according to data compiled by the US National Defense University and Bloomberg News.

At the same time, Xi isn’t afraid to hit back at Russia — particularly if its actions could pose a threat to his domestic standing or make him look weak. The border incident showed that many social-media users in China remain skeptical that Russia is worth all the grief Beijing is getting from the US and its allies.

A hashtag on China’s response to the incident saw nearly 50 million views on the Twitter-like Weibo platform, at one point ranking among the top ten most searched topics. Videos posted by social media accounts run by party-backed outlets such as Beijing Youth Daily primarily focused on the mistreatment of the travelers, echoing parts of the embassy statement that such behavior isn’t in line with China and Russia’s “current friendly situation” and “the trend of increasingly close exchanges between people.”

Online Outrage

Some of the most upvoted comments on Weibo questioned whether the travelers had failed to give a bribe, while others cautioned against having deep diplomatic relations with Moscow. “It goes without saying that one cannot have a deep friendship with Russia,” said Weibo user “Wall-E_22,” in a post that received almost 1,000 likes.

Russia is looking into the matter to avoid similar issues in the future, Tass reported Saturday, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter. The incident won’t harm relations between Russia and China, the state news wire said, adding that Western media is using the issue to try and undermine ties between the countries.

While the relationship with Russia is “too important for China to throw Vladimir Putin under the bus,” Xi must also show his people that he will stand up for their interests, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

“The strongly worded statement is not a signal to the Russian authorities themselves, but rather a reaction and signal to Chinese domestic online public to say that Xi Jinping’s government and MOFA is vigorous in protecting the rights of Chinese regardless of who the violators are,” Gabuev said, referring to China’s Foreign Ministry. “Be it enemies like the West or friends like Russia.”

–With assistance from Kari Lindberg and Rebecca Choong Wilkins.

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©2023 Bloomberg L.P.



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Ramaphosa Says China’s Xi Will Visit South Africa Aug. 22


(Bloomberg) — South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he will host President Xi Jinping on a state visit later this month, in what will be only the Chinese leader’s second trip abroad so far this year.

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The two will meet in the capital, Pretoria, on Aug. 22, Ramaphosa said in a brief statement on Monday. They’ll hold formal talks aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and sign a number of unspecified memorandums of agreement, according to a separate statement by the presidency.

Xi has spent only two days outside his country so far in 2023, as mounting domestic problems from a faltering economy to rare political scandals demand the Chinese leader’s attention at home. He visited Moscow in March for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Read More: Xi’s Spent Two Days Outside China in 2023 as Problems Mount

The meeting between Ramaphosa and Xi will take place on the first day of a BRICS summit that is scheduled to run through Aug. 24. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi are expected to attend that meeting in-person, while Putin is expected to participate virtually.

Read More: South Africa Says Putin Will Not Attend BRICs Summit in Person

(Updates with details of Xi’s travels abroad this year in third paragraph. An earlier version of this story corrected the date of the meeting.)

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©2023 Bloomberg L.P.



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The most interesting part of China’s stimulus announcement was the omission of a key phrase that ignited the 2020 crackdown on the real-estate sector


Local residents look at a model of a Poly Real Estate Group housing project at a real estate showroom on May 25, 2023 in Sanya, Hainan Province of China.

China’s once free-spending property buyers are now cautious about their real-estate purchases amid the country’s post-COVID economic slump.VCG/Getty Images

  • China’s property market is a huge part of the economy, but it’s now in a deep slump.

  • Beijing has been cracking down on excessive debt and speculation in the property market since 2020.

  • Authorities are now trying to boost the property market by encouraging consumption.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping proclaimed, “Houses are for living in and not for speculation,” in October 2017, the statement was met with stupendous applause in a red-hot real-estate market.

The mantra popularized by Xi has been an official fixture in major official communications since 2016, when Beijing was seeking to cool the sizzling property market, according to Bloomberg. Since 2019, the slogan has been present at every review of China’s top leadership, per the outlet.

Today, China’s property sector is so deep in the dumps that Beijing omitted a reference to Xi’s phrase at a key economic meeting in end-July that preceded a round of economic stimulus to revive the country’s economy.

The exclusion of the phrase is a big deal.

And while stark, the omission is in line with other major U-turns China pulled since the end of last year when it was starting to exit on-off COVID-19 lockdowns.

Beijing has tried to rein in property prices for years and succeeded in 2021 — but it crashed the market

The slogan “Houses are for living in and not for speculation” first appeared in an official statement after China’s top economic leaders met in December 2016.

To understand it, we need to rewind to the late 1990s when China started witnessing a decades-long boom in its real-estate sector.

The sector got so big that it — along with related industries — contributes as much as 30% to the country’s GDP, per a report from Spain’s Caixa Bank in January 2022.

But the property craze was also fueled by debt. The market was so hot that Chinese developers were taking on huge borrowings to build apartments ahead of demand. In fact, property developers built so many apartments that one-fifth of the homes in China were empty, Insider’s Lina Batarags reported in October 2021.

Expectedly, Beijing has tried to cool the frothy market for years — and it did seem as if the sector would get some respite when it experienced a downturn in 2014.

However, Chinese home prices started climbing persistently from 2015 onward, fuelling renewed concerns over an asset bubble that was making property prices unaffordable for ordinary people .

To manage risks and affordability, Beijing started cracking down on the sector by introducing the so-called “three red lines” policy regulating debt ratios for property developers. This measure was introduced in August 2020 to limit the amount of money property developers could borrow.

The debt ratios worked — but it started sending the property sector into a crisis in 2021 when property giant Evergrande ran into a debt spiral. Other Chinese real-estate developers ran into similar issues, and the sector started to default on its bond payments.

In the background, there were concerns that China’s property crisis could spill over into the broader domestic and global economy.

“There are only a handful of private sector players in the housing market that are left surviving, meaning they have not defaulted on their bonds,” Bo Zhuang, a senior sovereign analyst at Loomis Sayles, told Insider.

“So I will say the private sector has overly deleveraged in a short period of time,” he added.

Now, China’s trying to reverse years of crackdowns to boost its flagging economy

It didn’t help that China’s real-estate slowdown also came at a time when the country was still grappling with on-off COVID-19 lockdowns, which hit growth. In 2022, China’s economy grew 3% — well below its official 5.5% target, intensifying the drag on the property sector.

And the overall market slump has begun to seep into the property sector. The situation is so dire now that a developer in eastern China offered free gold bars to homebuyers. Another project in the same region is also offering a BOGO deal for those buying an entire floor of apartments, Nikkei reported on Wednesday.

Now Beijing’s primarily looking to stabilize the property market through consumption rather than stimulating supply. This pivot is because it needs to shore up the sector but wants to prevent the “Japanification” of its real-asset sector, Zhuang told Insider, referring to Japan’s economic stagnation since an asset bubble burst in the early 1990s.

To that end, Chinese authorities are trying to rev up consumers’ demand instead.

Last weekend, China’s largest cities — including Beijing and Shenzhen — said they would implement measures to meet the needs of homebuyers, hoping this would support the property sector, per Reuters.

On July 31, Beijing released a plan targeting the automobile, real estate, and services sectors that aim to “give full play to the fundamental role of consumption in economic development,” according to Insider’s translation of an official statement from the country’s top planning agency. They include subsidies for smart green home appliances and building materials in rural areas.

However, “the steps have been timid, and the road map is still not quite clear,” Nomura economists wrote in a July 31 note seen by Insider.

“While the recent moves by Beijing should be encouraged, markets need to curb their enthusiasm regarding the scale and impact of these easing measures,” the note said.

Consumers are also unlikely to be clamoring for new apartments amid broad economic uncertainty and record-high youth unemployment rate and slower economic growth.

“Households have lost the ‘animal spirit’ because they are not willing to invest or speculate their future in the housing sector anymore. I will say they have permanent COVID scarring,” said Loomis Sayles’ Zhuang.

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