Erdogan’s Party Behind Rivals in Municipal Vote in Early Results


(Bloomberg) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party is set to suffer a major setback against the main opposition in municipal elections, according to early results published by state broadcaster TRT.

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Support for Erdogan’s AK Party across Turkey was at 37.5% with nearly a third of all ballots counted, TRT said on its website. Main opposition party CHP was leading with 39% of the votes and set to keep its hold on Istanbul and Ankara, Turkey’s largest city and the capital, respectively.

Early results show Erdogan has been losing ground since he won a third term in Turkey’s presidential elections last May. The decline is more apparent in large cities, where rampant inflation has eaten into wage earners’ purchasing power. Erdogan allowed a steep rise in the cost of lending to rein in inflation since last year and kept a lid on pensioner wages, forcing a slowdown in household spending.

“The economy is of paramount importance. Voters made a serious warning” to Erdogan’s party, Istanbul-based polling firm Sonar’s chief, Hakan Bayrakci, said after initial results. High inflation and erosion in pensioner salaries were among the biggest factors shaping voting behavior, he said.

Istanbul Race

Eyes are particularly focused on the outcome in Istanbul, where Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was leading the race against Erdogan’s handpicked candidate with an eight-percentage-point margin, according to TRT. At stake is control of Turkey’s largest city with nearly 16 million people and a $6.6 billion annual budget that’s critical to voters during an ongoing cost-of-living crisis.

Imamoglu reclaimed control of Istanbul in 2019, bringing to an end Erdogan’s 25-year-long control of the city. His party also won the capital city Ankara from Erdogan’s party in the same elections in a stinging defeat for Turkey’s president.

Read More: Erdogan Seeks to Regain Istanbul and Vanquish His Nemesis

Islamist Defectors

Some of the decline in the ruling AKP’s votes was due to pro-Islamic New Welfare Party’s decision to field its own candidates, bringing the alliance between the two to an end. Mayors running under the party’s banner got nearly 4.5% of the votes in the early count reported by TRT.

The New Welfare severely criticized Erdogan’s economic policies and his government’s refusal to stop trade with Israel despite the war in Gaza.

Election day has been marred by violence in Diyarbakir and Mardin in the country’s Kurdish-dominated southeast, where clashes at some polling stations left at least one person dead and 22 others injured, according to the Anadolu.

Kurdish voters, who make up about 10% of Istanbul’s electorate, supported Imamoglu in 2019. In an attempt to win their support in various cities this time around, Erdogan floated the last-minute idea of a possible reconciliation with the country’s Kurdish minority.

Even so, the president said Turkey remains committed to fighting separatist Kurdish militants who he says threaten Turkey’s integrity. The pro-Kurdish DEM party has fielded its own candidates, but they’ve kept a low profile and aren’t running in all districts.

“Disastrous results for the ruling AKP — failing to win major cities and perhaps even losing national vote to the opposition CHP,” said Tim Ash, an emerging markets strategist at RBC Bluebay Asset Management.

(Updates with early results showing opposition gains from the first paragraph.)

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‘It’s possible’ Speaker Johnson could lose his job over Ukraine vote: GOP congressman


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    ‘It’s possible’ Speaker Johnson could lose his job over Ukraine vote: GOP congressman

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Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) tells Meet the Press that there are “one or two people that are not team players” in the House Republican conference, and they may choose to vote to remove Speaker Johnson over a vote to support aid to Ukraine.



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False posts ahead of India vote target West Bengal chief with ‘fake injury’ claim


Ahead of India’s general elections that begin April 19, critics of West Bengal state leader Mamata Banerjee shared a photo collage they falsely claimed depicted her faking an injury. But the pictures — one showing her with a bloodied forehead while the other showing a different part of her face bandaged — were from two separate incidents. A spokesman for Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress party told AFP she was wounded when she slipped and fell at her home in March.

Warning: This story contains images of an injured woman

“What kind of drama is this? The injury is in the middle of forehead and the bandage has been applied on the side,” said the Hindi-language caption to the collage shared on Facebook on March 16, 2024.

Banerjee, a fierce critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been in power for over a decade in West Bengal state that is home to 90 million people.

Her Trinamool Congress (TMC) will battle Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for seats in the lower house of parliament in upcoming elections that start mid-April.

<span>Screenshot of the false Facebook post, taken on March 22, 2024</span>

Screenshot of the false Facebook post, taken on March 22, 2024

The photo collage was also shared alongside a similar false claim on Facebook here and here, and on social media platform X here.

Comments on the posts indicated social media users believed the claim.

“Election gimmick,” one wrote. Another said: “Why does such drama happen just before elections?”

Separate incidents

Reverse image searches on Google found the pictures in the collage were taken from two separate incidents that happened in different months.

The picture that showed Banerjee with blood from a wound on her forehead was among the three photos published by her party on X here on March 14, 2024 (archived link).

The post said: “Our chairperson @MamataOfficial sustained a major injury. Please keep her in your prayers.”

Below is a screenshot comparison of the picture in the false posts (left) and the one shared by TMC (right):

Similar pictures were published by local news websites here and here which reported Banerjee fell in a room at her house on March 14 and was rushed to a hospital (archived links here and here).

The image showing her with the bandage on her face, however, was from an incident that happened over a month prior. It corresponds to a photo published by news website Indian Express on January 25, 2024 (archived link).

The report said the West Bengal chief minister sustained a head injury at the time when her car made a sudden halt to avoid hitting another vehicle.

A video report uploaded on regional Bengali-language news outlet ABP Ananda’s YouTube channel on January 24 showed Banerjee briefing the media about the incident (archived link).

The visuals from the 2:05 mark of the report showed her with the same bandage as in the picture in the collage.

Below is a screenshot comparison of the photo in the false posts (left) and the video uploaded on ABP Ananda’s YouTube channel (right):

Responding to the posts, Trinamool Congress spokesman told AFP on March 28 the collage showed “two very different incidents”.

“Mamata Banerjee hit her head on the windshield and sustained minor injury on January 24,” Dutta said, referring to the picture of her with the bandage.

The more recent injury, caused by her slipping and falling at home in March, caused “a major gash on her forehead” and several other cuts. “There were four stitches that were applied to her. Later she was at home, under treatment,” Dutta added.

AFP had previously debunked misinformation targeting Banerjee here and here.





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Texas woman’s prison sentence for attempting to vote illegally is thrown out


A woman’s five-year prison sentence for voting illegally was tossed out by a Texas appeals court on Thursday, ending a years-long saga that garnered national attention.

Crystal Mason was sentenced in 2018 to five years in prison after testifying she did not know that she was ineligible to vote because she was convicted of tax fraud in 2011. She cast a provisional ballot in the 2016 presidential election with the help of a poll worker.

In Thursday’s ruling to overturn Mason’s sentence, Justice Wade Birdwell wrote that “finding Mason to be not credible — and disbelieving her protestation of actual knowledge — does not suffice as proof of guilt.”

Mason had previously testified that when she was in prison, she was not informed that she could not vote upon her release, Birdwell detailed. She also “emphatically denied” reading the provisional ballot’s affirmations detailing felon voting restrictions, testifying that she did not know she was not allowed to cast a ballot because she was on supervised release from prison, according to Birdwell.

Mason’s ballot was not counted when officials determined that she was ineligible to vote because of her 2011 conviction, the ruling said.

“In the end, the State’s primary evidence was that Mason read the words on the affidavit,” Birdwell said.

“But even if she had read them, they are not sufficient — even in the context of the rest of the evidence in this case — to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that she actually knew that being on supervised release after having served her entire federal sentence of incarceration made her ineligible to vote by casting a provisional ballot when she did so,” he added.

The Texas Court of Criminal Appeals announced in 2021 that it would consider an appeal from Mason, who was out of prison on an appeal bond.

Her 2018 sentenced garnered national attention, and critics have rallied against the lower court’s decision.



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U.N. to vote on new Gaza cease-fire resolution, Israeli officials in U.S. after Rafah attack warning


There is growing international consensus to tell Israel cease-fire is needed, U.N. secretary general says

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said during a visit to Jordan on Monday that there is growing international consensus to tell Israel that a cease-fire is needed and that an assault on Rafah would cause a humanitarian disaster.

“We see a growing consensus emerging in the international community to tell the Israelis that the cease-fire is needed and I also see a growing consensus, I heard in the U.S., I heard from the European Union, not to mention of course the Muslim world, to tell clearly to Israelis that any ground invasion of Rafah could mean a humanitarian disaster,” Guterres told a news conference.



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Louisiana sheriff’s candidate Henry Whitehorn, who won by a single vote in November, easily wins do-over


Shreveport, La. — Months after his disputed one-vote victory in a Louisiana sheriff’s race was tossed by a court, a career law enforcement officer was decisively elected on his second try Saturday.

Democratic candidate Henry Whitehorn got 53% of the vote in Saturday’s election in northwest Louisiana’s Caddo Parish. He’ll be the parish’s first Black sheriff.

henry-whitehorn.jpg
Henry Whitehorn, in February 2007.

AP Photo / Judi Bottoni


Returns from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s Office show Whitehorn defeated Republican John Nickelson – this time by more than 4,000 votes.

Turnout was considerably higher in the second race. State figures show 65,239 people voted Saturday – up from 43,247 in November.

Whitehorn is a former head of the Louisiana State Police and former Shreveport police chief. He won by a single vote in November but courts ordered a new election after finding evidence that two people illegally voted twice and four others voted despite being ineligible.

Whitehorn had come out of retirement to run for sheriff after longtime Sheriff Steve Prator announced his retirement.

“I’m troubled by the violent crime that’s plaguing our community. I had retired and I could have just sat on the sidelines, if I chose to, and watched. But I’ve been called to serve. I couldn’t just sit and watch this community suffer,” Whitehorn told The Shreveport-Bossier City Advocate.

Nickelson conceded Saturday night as Whitehorn’s victory became apparent. “I called Mr. Whitehorn and congratulated him and wished him and the sheriff’s office well,” Nickelson said. “I want the very best for this community, which has been such a good home for me and my family for generations. And I wish him every success because his success will be Caddo Parish’s success.”

Whitehorn will be sworn in on July 1, replacing interim Sheriff Jay Long who took over from Prator on March 1.



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Baseless ‘2020 poll fraud’ claims resurface ahead of S. Korea vote in April


As South Korea geared up for elections in April, social media posts shared a photo of a stack of ballot papers they misleadingly claimed was evidence of vote rigging in the country’s 2020 polls. The picture was taken by a lawyer who alleged votes cast for the Democratic Party in the city of Guri did not have any fold marks, suggesting they were fraudulently filled out. However, the Supreme Court ruled ballots without clear fold marks were not proof of fraud. A legal bid to challenge election results in Guri was dismissed.

The photo, which was shared on Facebook on March 8, 2024, shows a bundle of ballot papers.

The top one shows a vote cast for the Democratic Party’s Yun Ho-jung, who was elected member of parliament for Guri in 2020 (archived link).

Yun’s party won in a landslide and secured the most number of seats in the National Assembly.

Korean text below the picture says police must “prevent the emergence of piles of printed ballots like these during the April 10, 2024 poll”.

<span>Screenshot of the Facebook post, taken on March 15</span>

Screenshot of the Facebook post, taken on March 15

A reverse image search on Google found the photo was originally posted on Facebook by lawyer Park Joo-hyun on May 21, 2020.

“Evidence preserved from the Guri Election Commission,” he wrote in Korean.

“How come the ballot papers inside the early absentee voting envelope are so stiff? They’re as stiff as newly printed banknotes!”

He told South Korean daily Chosun Ilbo that the “stiff” early voting ballots — those that looked fresh and without apparent creases — were suspicious as voters would have to fold them in half to fit the return envelope (archived link).

Similar posts misleadingly claiming the photo was evidence of fraud have circulated online since the 2020 vote here, here and here.

Court cases

However, Korea’s Supreme Court rejected a similar argument in a case it heard alleging fraud in the 2020 elections.

The case — filed in a district in Incheon, southwest of the capital Seoul — argued ballots without fold marks should be considered forgeries.

The court ruled in July  2022 that the absence of fold marks alone did not provide evidence of irregularities (archived link).

It noted the ballots were small enough to be put in the ballot box without folding or placed in the return envelope for absentee, early voters.

Moreover, the court said it used a microscope to examine the ballots that the plaintiff claimed to have no fold marks and in fact found marks on a significant number of them.

The plaintiff was not identified in the ruling.

In addition, the election commission said in its invalid ballots guideline that unfolded ballots were considered valid unless the voter intentionally disclosed their vote (archived link).

As of March 22, 2024, no evidence of rigging in the 2020 election emerged, despite multiple cases filed in court.

According to South Korea’s election commission, 126 lawsuits sought to nullify various poll results in 2020 but no vote rigging was substantiated to date (archived link).

In Guri city, where the picture circulating online was taken, two legal bids challenged the results, a representative from the commission told AFP on March 18.

One of the bids was dropped while the court dismissed the other due to the applicant’s failure to follow proper civil procedure, the representative added.

Ballot paper

Ballot papers have “better crease recovery” compared to regular paper, the election commission representative also said.

A representative from Moorim SP — one of two paper manufacturers that supply ballot paper in South Korea — separately told AFP on March 20: “If ballots are folded, they are unfolded before being put into a sorter. If the ballot paper’s ability to recover from creasing is poor, it causes jamming and hinders the automated sorting process.”

The election commission confirmed to AFP the same type of paper will be used for ballots in the upcoming April poll.



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UN Security Council vote on Gaza ceasefire resolution postponed


A planned UN Security Council vote on a resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in the Gaza war during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has been postponed until Monday.

A vote had originally been scheduled for Saturday, but was delayed at the last minute, with diplomats continuing negotiations behind closed doors to make an adoption of the draft resolution more likely, dpa understands.

On Friday, Russia and China vetoed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas.

The latest draft resolution calls for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire for Ramadan “leading to a permanent sustainable ceasefire.” Ramadan began on March 10 in many countries and ends on April 9.

The draft also calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages and emphasizes the need to deliver humanitarian aid throughout the Gaza Strip.

If the resolution is approved, it would be the first time since the start of the Israeli military operation against the Palestinian Islamist organization Hamas at the beginning of October that the most powerful UN body speaks out in favour of a sustained ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

To pass, a resolution in the UN Security Council requires at least nine of the 15 votes, and there can be no veto from one of the permanent five powers.

Security Council resolutions are binding under international law. If an affected state ignores them, the body can impose sanctions.



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India’s Modi faces a no-confidence vote over silence on ethnic violence tearing at remote Manipur


NEW DELHI (AP) — His social media accounts suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is launching high-speed trains and rubbing shoulders with foreign leaders as a powerhouse on the global stage and the face of an ascendant India.

But that carefully crafted image, followed by millions, sits uncomfortably at odds with his silence on what’s come close to a civil war engulfing India’s northeastern state of Manipur.

For three months, the strongman leader has been absent on arguably the worst ethnic violence ever seen in the remote state, where Modi’s Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party is in power. Modi’s role, or lack thereof, has sparked a no-confidence motion against him in Parliament, where his government holds the majority.

He will almost certainly defeat the effort this week. But proponents of the motion are betting that just bringing it up will force Modi to address the Manipur crisis from the floor of Parliament.

MODI’S SILENCE

More than 150 people have died and over 50,000 displaced after ethnic clashes in Manipur erupted in early May.

The conflict was triggered by an affirmative action controversy in which Christian Kukis protested a demand by mostly Hindu Meiteis for a special status that would let them buy land in the hills populated by Kukis and other tribal groups and get a share of government jobs.

“I think everybody is very puzzled by the prime minister’s silence,” said Arati R. Jerath, an independent journalist and political commentator.

A harrowing video showing two women in Manipur being assaulted and groped went viral a few weeks ago, forcing Modi to condemn the specific attack even as he held back from addressing the overall conflict.

Modi is the first to showcase incidents or projects that reflect India’s rising prowess, but critics and analysts say he is often deliberately mute on controversies— such as the COVID-19 Delta surge across India, or acts of communal violence.

Last week, a railway police officer opened fire inside a train, killing a senior officer and three Muslims before hailing Modi, according to a purported video of the attack. Police are investigating the incident.

On the same day, five people died in a communal clash between Hindus and Muslims in a BJP-ruled state during a religious procession by a radical Hindu group.

“The prime minister believes that silence on these issues does not harm him. He believes that he is reaching out to the people of India through the work that his government is doing,” Jerath said.

Speaking out on the tension in Manipur could also amount to criticism of his own party in the state, especially as calls grow for a dismissal of the chief minister and government which has failed to quell the bloodshed.

Some observers say that his silence could shield his political brand ahead of a general election next year, especially since Modi is more popular than the BJP. But Jerath said the conflict has now become too consequential to ignore.

“It is harming the prime minister because he comes across as somebody who doesn’t have empathy … and that’s not a good image” especially with India set to welcome leaders of the top 20 economies for a summit next month, she said.

WHY IT MATTERS

The danger of violence and distrust between communities remains high in Manipur, which has essentially been split into two parts — between the hill tribes home to the Kukis and the plains below, where the Meitei live. They’re divided by a buffer zone manned by police forces.

The internet was blocked for over two months and movement for residents remains severely restricted. Furious and armed mobs have torched homes and buildings, massacred civilians and driven tens of thousands from their homes. They have also raided police armories, looting nearly 3,000 weapons including rifles, machine guns and AK-47s, said Sushant Singh, a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research and an Indian army veteran.

Last week, India’s top court said there has been a breakdown of law and order and demanded the Manipur police director appear in court on Monday.

There’s also growing fear that the turmoil in Manipur could potentially spread across India’s northeast, a region with a fractured history of ethnic violence that previous governments have long tried to resolve. The state also shares a border with Myanmar.

“There are shared ethnic roots that run across state boundaries — it has already started to spill over into nearby states like Mizoram and parts of Assam,” said Singh.

And since the state machinery has collapsed, tens of thousands of army personnel have been brought in, including those from a division that was manning the disputed India-China border, according to Singh.

“If the issue is not resolved quickly, these commitments will continue and can weaken India’s defense posture against China in the eastern sector,” he added.

THE NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION

The opposition knows there’s hardly any chance of winning the no-confidence vote. But they argue that the motion means the prime minister will have to appear on the Parliament floor to answer questions and address the Manipur crisis.

The newly formed INDIA alliance comprising 26 opposition parties have been pushing for a statement from Modi on Manipur in Parliament since its session began last month.

They have also called for the firing of Biren Singh, Manipur’s top elected official in Manipur and a member of Modi’s party, and to impose a rule that would bring the state under direct federal control. For weeks, the opposition has protested inside and outside the Parliament, which has been consistently adjourned amid loud sloganeering and booing as the government tries to rush through bills.

They also visited the state recently, in a bid to pressure the government while taking a swipe at Modi, who hasn’t set foot in Manipur since the violence began.

But nothing has worked so far. “We had to escalate our efforts,” said Gaurav Gogoi, a lawmaker from the opposition Congress party who initiated the no-confidence motion.

Home Minister Amit Shah visited Manipur in May for three days, where he held talks with community leaders and groups. But overall, critics say the government has shared very little publicly on the situation in Manipur and any plans to resolve it.

“When there is a conflict of this magnitude, the leader of the country uses the forum of the Parliament to communicate his vision and message and then members of the house come together in support,” said Gogoi. “But at a moment when the Indian Parliament needs to be at its finest, we are seeing such unwarranted indifference from the government,” he added.



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Putin’s administration claims he would get more than 90% of vote in elections


Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for the Russian dictator, claimed that Vladimir Putin will be re-elected in the presidential election next year with a result of more than 90% of the vote.

Source: Peskov in a comment to The New York Times

Quote: “Our presidential election is not really democracy, it is costly bureaucracy. Mr. Putin will be re-elected next year with more than 90 percent of the vote.”

Details: The New York Times, referring to the results of the Levada Center pollster, notes that Putin’s popularity fell only once in September last year, when a partial mobilisation was announced in the Russian Federation.

Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center, says that the drop in support for Putin was the largest in 30 years of polls – from about 80% to 50%.

Since then, the level of support for Putin has returned to about 80%, as far as polls can be trusted in the current conditions, the newspaper writes.

Background: As Meduza wrote in July, the Kremlin decided that in the 2024 elections, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin should receive support of more than 80% of voters.

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